Arsi and Wollega: who counted the dead, and what is still unknown

Key takeaways

• Arsi is the better documented of the two. The Ethiopian Human Rights Commission (EHRC) investigated two attacks in 2026 and attributes both to the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) [1][4]. The OLA blamed "mercenaries" for the February killings [3]. The federal government blames the OLA acting with Fano [10]. Death tolls for the May–June attack range from three civilians named by EHRC to 37–40 in reports cited by the World Council of Churches [4][9].

• East Wollega rests on conflicting, unverified accounts. Reports of the August 2026 killings come from an Amhara advocacy body, diaspora media and an Oromo outlet, and they blame opposite sides [12][13][15]. ACLED separately recorded a Fano ambush on a military convoy that killed at least 16 people, civilians among them [17]. No national or UN human rights body has published an investigation, as of 15 October [21].

• The victims are not one community. Amhara and Orthodox Christian civilians are prominent among those reported killed. The dead also include a Muslim herder in Arsi, a midwife and bus passengers in Wollega, and, by competing accounts, Oromo civilians [4][15][17][18][23].

Arsi: two attacks, one institution's findings

26 February 2026, Shirka and Robe. EHRC reported killings, injuries, abductions and displacement in Jawi kebele (Shirka woreda) and Geba kebele (Robe woreda). It gave no total, describing "an as-yet-undetermined number" of victims [1]. EHRC attributed the attacks to the OLA, "commonly referred to as 'Shene'". It said violence had escalated since October 2025 in Shirka, Guna, Merti, Aseko and Honkolo Wabe [1].

BBC News Amharic reported that 19 to 21 people were killed in Jawi Wachu kebele that Thursday, 26 February, and more than 30 across Shirka and Merti woredas that week, according to residents and church officials [2]. Addis Standard reported 21 civilians killed in Shirka [3]. These are the same attack. The Ethiopian Orthodox Church's Permanent Synod issued its statement on 1 March, which is not a separate killing date. The Synod, the Inter-Religious Council of Ethiopia and the Ethiopian Islamic Affairs Supreme Council each condemned the killings and called for investigation [3]. The OLA blamed "mercenaries" who, it said, were targeting Orthodox Christian civilians to inflame inter-religious and inter-ethnic tensions [3].

31 May – 1 June 2026, Aseko. EHRC investigated on site [4]. It confirmed:

• three civilians killed in Deleta Chaffa kebele, whom it named: Hailu Nigussie, Semu Abayneh and Bato Sefeno. EHRC notes that Bato Sefeno was a Muslim, killed while herding cattle;

• an unstated number of government security personnel also killed;

• more than 2,650 people displaced;

• Deleta Kidus Gabriel Church burned down, the fence of the Biyo Butule Sheikh Mustafa Mosque damaged, and a health centre, homes and shops looted.

EHRC attributed the attack to "an armed group identifying itself as the Oromo Liberation Army" [4]. ACLED independently attributed it to the OLA [5]. EHRC recorded armed movements in the kebele from 30 May, and the World Council of Churches dates the start of the flare-up to that day [4][9].

Who counted what. The toll for this episode depends on the source:

Count Scope Source 3 civilians, named, plus unnumbered security personnel Deleta Chaffa, 31 May – 1 Jun EHRC, on-site [4] 9 31 May Diocese letter, per Reporter Magazine [7] 13 Orthodox faithful; 280+ displaced; a 101-year-old church burned Aseko, Shirka and Honkolo Wabe Archbishop Abune Elsae's statement, per BBC News Amharic [6]; the diocese, per Wazema [7] 37 Aseko Borkena [8] "37 or 40 people may have died" Aseko "Some reports", cited by the World Council of Churches, which says "the exact death toll is still unknown" [9]

The Patriarch, Abune Mathias, did not give a figure. He said that "many faithful believers were unjustly killed" [9]. The Prime Minister's Office blamed the OLA "in coordination with the Fano extremist groups" [10]. "Extremist" is the government's term; Fano is not a designated terrorist organization.

The longer record. The Ethiopian Human Rights Council (EHRCO), an independent NGO distinct from EHRC, reported 458 deaths across nine East Arsi districts between September 2021 and June 2026, four of them militia members, and 14,451 people displaced, in its 158th special report, published in July 2026 [11]. According to Borkena, EHRCO concluded that the acts bore "the hallmarks of crimes against humanity"; Ethio Negari renders the finding as "indicators of crimes against humanity" [11]. That is EHRCO's characterization, not the Hub's. This review found no reported Arsi incidents from August to mid-October 2026.

East Wollega: competing accounts in one district

In August 2026, Gida Ayana district in East Wollega was the scene of killings reported by several sources. They disagree on who the victims were and who killed them. Independent documentation is lacking: the main source is an advocacy body, and no independent investigation has been published [21].

• Amhara Association of America (AAA), an Amhara advocacy organization. It reported that "over 68 civilians were confirmed killed" in Gida Ayana and Limu Gelila between 18 and 29 August, mostly Amhara and Orthodox Christians, but also Tigrinya speakers and Muslims. It attributed the killings to "a coalition of regular and irregular forces affiliated to the Oromo Prosperity Party (OPP) regime". It reported that four churches were burned. AAA worked from "reports and extensive footage", not on-site investigation [12].

• Borkena. Relaying the diaspora outlet Ethiopia Media Service, it reported more than 20 people dead, among them an Orthodox archpriest, Qomos Aba Tadesse, and attributed the killings to the Geda Commando, a force under the Oromia regional structure [13]. A later report described more than 15,000 ethnic Amhara people displaced by Oromia special forces, militias and Geda Commando units, some trapped in the Ali forest [14]. Both rely on unnamed sources.

• Oromedia. It reported that more than 30 civilians were killed by "armed Fano forces" at Andode Dicho in Gida Ayana, around 12 August, citing eyewitnesses and the Oromia News Agency [15]. AAA lists 17 of its dead in Andode kebele, apparently the same area, in the later period it covers.

• ACLED. It recorded a clash on 8 August in Fandaqaa kebele between the Oromia Gadaa Commando, kebele militia and OLA elements on one side and Fano's Bizamo Command on the other; its local sources said the OLA fighters were protecting civilians from a Fano attack [16][17]. On 19 August, ACLED reports, the Bizamo Command, which it describes as linked to the AFNM, ambushed a military convoy escorting public buses, ambulances and cash vehicles, killing at least 16 people: "six passengers, one patient, one midwife, three bank managers, and five soldiers". Demonstrations followed in Gida Ayana and Anger Gutin [17]. ACLED's two comments, covering events to 21 August, do not mention the killings of Amhara civilians that AAA and Borkena reported.

Addis Standard wrote that the violence "did not fit neatly into the familiar framing of either a federal government-Fano confrontation or an Oromo-Amhara communal conflict". It reported messages describing "civilians struggling to determine which armed actors were confronting one another" [18]. The Ethiopian Media Authority revoked Addis Standard's licence on 24 February 2026, and security forces detained its editor-in-chief, Yonas Kedir, in early August, according to CPJ [20].

The OLA has demanded that Fano disown a faction in Wollega that it says the government armed [18][19]. The AFNM says Fano in Wollega is locally rooted and under its single command [17][18]. Al Jazeera notes years of accusations that Fano fighters have killed Oromo civilians in Wollega [19]. An op-ed in Oromia Today argues that civilian harm in western Oromia, where it says federal and regional forces, militias and Fano have all been accused, goes uncounted [23]. Both the OLA and the AFNM were listed as signatories of the Alliance for Survival's founding statement of 20 September 2026. That has not resolved the dispute.

What is missing

• EHRC had published nothing on East Wollega in 2026 as of 15 October [21].

• OHCHR, Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch have issued nothing specific to the 2026 events in either zone. Amnesty's March 2026 briefing on OLA abuses covers neighbouring Kellem Wollega, 2020–2024 [24]. The High Commissioner said on 7 September that "civilians are bearing the brunt of attacks in Amhara and Oromia" [22].

• This review found no Reuters, AFP or AP report on either zone. BBC News Amharic reported both Arsi attacks [2][6], and ACLED reported on both zones [5][16][17].

These gaps are real. They do not amount to silence, and what has been documented should be built on, not dismissed.

Recommendations

• Federal and Oromia regional governments. Protect civilians in East Arsi and East Wollega. Open investigations into all reported killings, including those attributed to state-affiliated forces such as the Geda Commando. Give the EHRC unhindered access.

• EHRC. Investigate the August 2026 killings in Gida Ayana and Limu Gelila, covering every reported perpetrator and victim group, and publish the findings.

• OLA. Respond to EHRC's findings on Shirka and Aseko and cooperate with any investigation.

• AFNM and all Fano formations. Account for the 19 August ambush recorded by ACLED. The AFNM has claimed command of the Bizamo Command [17]; it should state what orders those forces have on the protection of civilians.

• OHCHR and the UN Human Rights Council. Make sure any monitoring or expert mechanism on Ethiopia covers Oromia, including Arsi and Wollega.

• Religious councils and civil society. Keep publishing counts with their sources and dates, so that verified floors and higher estimates can be told apart.