Methodology & ethics

Evidence grades

Every figure in an Atrocity Alert cites an external source with one of four grades:

• Confirmed — reported by two or more independent, reputable sources, or by a mandated body (UN OHCHR, ICHREE, EHRC) with a stated methodology.
• Fair — one reputable source with corroborating detail, or consistent local reporting.
• Contested — credible sources disagree on key facts; the disagreement is stated.
• Single source — one source only; published for urgency and flagged as such.

Atrocity Alert tiers

Every Atrocity Alert carries one of three tiers. The Board adopted these thresholds in October 2026 and will review them after three months.

• Watch — credible single-source reports of civilian killings, or a sharp rise in risk factors (fighting moving into populated areas, a communications blackout, mass displacement, identity-based rhetoric by an armed actor), with no second independent confirmation yet.
• Warning — civilian deaths confirmed by at least two independent graded sources, or by one mandated body (UN, African Commission, EHRC), in a defined area and period: either at least 10 deaths in one incident or at least 25 in seven days, with a continuing risk of recurrence.
• Emergency — confirmed killings of civilians that are ongoing, large-scale (indicatively 100 or more in seven days) or systematic, or credible evidence that civilians are being targeted for their identity; in either case, with access for monitors or aid denied and recurrence expected within days.

An alert states which tier it carries and as of what date. Alerts may be issued by two designated Board signatories within hours and are ratified at the next Board meeting. A tier changes only through a numbered update.

Analysis of others' data

ICAI's trackers and analyses are an analytical layer over data collected by others. We link each organisation's own methodology and never present their figures as our own. ICAI does not collect testimony or evidence.

Terminology

ICAI uses "war crimes", "crimes against humanity" and "atrocity crimes" as the bodies with the strongest evidentiary standards do, and states clearly when a term such as "genocide" reflects ICAI's founding assessment rather than a determination by a court or UN body.

Ethics

Members publish under their own names unless a documented safety risk justifies a pseudonym. Conflicts of interest are declared to the editorial board. Sources who could be harmed by identification are never named.