Amhara’s Two-Front War: The Alliance for Survival and the Tigray Escalation

Key facts, as of 15 October 2026

• The Alliance for Survival was announced on 20 September 2026. Its listed membership is disputed. Of its members, only the TPLF, Amhara Fano forces and the Afar group Ugugumo were reported in active combat in late September [5][8].

• The joint Tigrayan–Fano push into north-eastern Amhara (Raya-Kobo, Wag Hemra) was halted near Kobo by 25 September and reversed. Federal forces retook Sekota (27 Sep) and Alamata (27–28 Sep), entered Mekelle (3 Oct), and held Adwa by 12 October [4][5][16][17].

• Fighting between Fano and federal forces continued inside Amhara into mid-October, in North Shewa (Menz), South and North Wollo, and North Gondar; DW Amharic reported it ongoing on 13 October [19]. Of the Fano territorial claims made in October, only the capture of Mehal Meda (7 Oct) has been corroborated by open-source evidence [20][21][32].

• Ethiopia and Eritrea cut diplomatic ties on 1 October. Each has written to the UN Security Council accusing the other [24][25].

• No casualty figure for Amhara civilians in this period has been independently verified. On 10 October UN News reported that verified displacement figures were not yet available [26].

• Fano is not a designated terrorist organization. Ethiopia's parliament designated only the TPLF and OLF-Shene in May 2021, and the TPLF was delisted in March 2023.

Update policy: this explainer is kept current through numbered, dated updates. Earlier text is not silently changed.

Two conflicts, one map

The conflict in Amhara is older than the current war. Unrest began in April 2023 and became armed conflict between federal forces and Fano militias in August 2023 [30]. A state of emergency declared that month expired in June 2024 [30]. When large-scale fighting broke out on 22–23 September 2026, the war in Amhara was already in its fourth year [11]. Two kinds of fighting now overlap on Amhara's territory. One is the Tigray front, which crossed into north-eastern Amhara. The other is the war between Fano and federal forces, which predates that front and has continued after it moved north.

The Alliance for Survival

On 20 September 2026, Zemene Kassie, chairman of the Amhara Fano National Movement (AFNM), read a founding statement on Tigrai TV [2]. It announced the "Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival, known in short as the Alliance for Survival" [1]. Its official Amharic short name is ትብብር ለሕልውና [1]. The label ጽምዶ (Tsimdo), which the Ethiopian military used in May 2026 for an alleged anti-government alignment and the OLA used in September, is not the Alliance's own name [31][34].

The statement lists seven signatories: the AFNM, the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), the TPLF, the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF), the Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front (Ugugumo), the Benishangul Peoples' Liberation Movement and the Gumuz Peoples' Democratic Movement [1]. That list has not held:

• On 17 September, three days before the launch, the OLA said it "is neither involved in, nor is not a component of Tsimdo", while acknowledging that an alliance of opposition forces was taking shape [34]. It is nonetheless listed as a signatory.

• The Gumuz movement denied membership on 26 September and said it has no armed wing [4][5].

• The Benishangul movement also denied membership, according to DW Amharic as relayed by Critical Threats [8].

• The ONLF is split over who leads it. A statement issued in its name on 21 September denies joining and describes the pro-membership faction as led by a former chairman with no authority [6]. That faction, led by Abdirahman Mohamed Sheikh Mahdi, says the ONLF Central Committee authorised membership and rejects the denial [7].

• The Sidama National Liberation Front announced that it had joined, on 24 September according to Critical Threats and 25 September according to Al Jazeera [5][8].

The members do not fight equally. By 1 October, Critical Threats reported that the ONLF, the Benishangul and the Gumuz groups had indicated they would not contribute to the military effort. It had recorded no OLA participation in the fighting, and reported that the OLA had described the arrangement, on 17 September, as a "procedural consensus" [2][8][34].

The founding text commits members to "defend ourselves collectively against the devastating war declared upon us; remove Prosperity's personalist and dictatorial system", and to form "an inclusive transitional government guided by a transitional charter" [1]. It contains no commitment to international humanitarian law, to the protection of civilians or to accountability [1]. At a press conference on 27 September, an AFNM representative listed mechanisms of "transitional justice and accountability" among its long-term aims, according to a single report [9]. The same report says the Alliance referred to a code of conduct governing relations among its members, which it did not present in full [9]. No civilian-protection undertaking had been published as of 15 October.

The federal government says the Alliance confirms its long-standing claim of Eritrean backing for the groups. A government spokesperson, Billene Seyoum, said: "The recent announcement is only attesting (to) what the Ethiopian government has been alleging time and again." Eritrea did not respond to Reuters, but has repeatedly denied similar accusations [3]. The United Kingdom stated: "We reject the Alliance for Survival coalition's stated aim to overthrow Ethiopia's government" [10]. Crisis Group placed "responsibility for the escalation … primarily with the TPLF, which launched ground assaults in coordination with other rebels" [11]. No government or intergovernmental statement found through 15 October attributes the escalation to Fano or Amhara forces as such.

Fano is not one organization: the AFNM is itself a coalition of Fano factions [5]. Nor do all Amhara bodies back the Alliance. The Welkait Tegede Amhara Identity and Border Restoration Committee rejected taking part and publicly opposed aligning with the TPLF, saying such alignments undermine Amhara identity and territorial demands in Welkait, Tegede, Tselemt and Raya [12].

The Tigray front in Amhara: advance and reversal

From 23 September, Tigrayan forces (TDF) and the AFNM attacked along the Tigray–Amhara boundary. ACLED recorded the TDF fighting alongside the AFNM at Kobo-Tumuga in North Wollo, and clashes in Gazgibela (Wag Hemra), Gidan, Lasta and Raya Kobo [4]. By 25 September flights to Lalibela had been suspended; ACLED reported fighting around the town but not inside it [4]. The advance down the A2 highway was halted near Kobo by about 25 September [8].

Federal forces, with the government-aligned Tigray Peace Force, then counter-attacked:

• They retook Sekota (Wag Hemra) on 27 September after three days of fighting against the TDF and AFNM [4].

• They took Alamata (Raya, administered as Southern Tigray; claimed by Amhara) on 27–28 September. ACLED first reported the seizure on 27 September; government-aligned forces gave the date as 28 September [4][5].

• They entered Mekelle on 3 October after the TPLF withdrew [4][16].

• By 12 October they held Abi Adi, Adigrat, Adwa and Shire [17].

On 15 October the US Embassy reported that "recent fighting has greatly subsided in the Tigray, Amhara, and Afar Regions" [18].

Civilians were killed on this front. In and around Alamata, at least 52 civilians were killed in three days of fighting from 26 to 28 September, hospital sources told the BBC. Residents could not determine who carried out the attacks [15]. OHCHR reported that a mortar strike in Kobo on 23 September, "reportedly by the ENDF", caused civilian deaths; it gave no toll [14]. Responsibility for the shelling and air strikes in Raya has not been independently established.

The Fano–federal war inside Amhara

The war between the AFNM and federal forces did not stop when the Tigray front moved north. It shifted south and west:

• North Shewa (Menz). The AFNM took Mehal Meda on 7 October, according to Critical Threats [20]. Open-source analysts geolocated a photograph of armed fighters at the gate of the town's hospital, though its date was not independently verified [32]. This is the only October territorial claim with such corroboration. On 9 October an AFNM spokesperson also claimed Zemero, Wogere, Meragna, Anchekorer and other localities, and 520 soldiers captured. Borkena noted that "the story has not been independently verified" [21]. A witness told DW Amharic that at least two civilians, including a ninth-grade student, were killed by stray bullets in Mehal Meda during the fighting on 7 October [22].

• South and North Wollo. DW Amharic reported two weeks of fighting in South Wollo districts including Borena, Mehal Sayint, Wegdi and Ambassel, and in Wegeltena town, where combatants told residents to leave [19]. Critical Threats, citing open-source accounts, reported that the AFNM took Wurgessa on the A2 on 3 October [20]. In Mekane Selam, residents told DW Amharic that a child was killed and family members wounded in heavy fighting on 5 October; control of the town was not established [33].

• North Gondar. The AFNM attacked Dabat on the B30 road on 7 October [20].

No major Amhara city is reported to have changed hands. On 1 October the regional council re-elected Arega Kebede as president. According to Borkena, he said his administration would focus on strengthening law enforcement operations across all zones of the region [23].

Ethiopia and Eritrea

On 1 October Ethiopia said it would close its embassy in Asmara and declared 10 Eritrean diplomats persona non grata; Eritrea responded by severing diplomatic ties [24]. In a letter to the Security Council of 9 October (S/2026/797), Ethiopia accused Eritrea of arming, financing and directing insurgent groups, and invoked Article 51 of the UN Charter. In its reply of 10 October (S/2026/798), Eritrea rejected the self-defence claim as an attempt to justify a war of aggression, according to Security Council Report [25]. Witnesses told Reuters that Eritrean soldiers drove through Adigrat on 7 October; Crisis Group reported that some withdrew towards the border a day later, after reported drone strikes [27]. On 9 October the UN Secretary-General said he was "gravely concerned by the renewed fighting in the Tigray, Afar and Amhara regions" and by reports of Eritrean forces' presence [26]. His statement of 23 September had referred only to "neighboring areas" [26]. On 15 October the UK said it "opposes action by any party which breaches the border of its neighbouring states" [29].

What to watch

• Whether the Alliance publishes any commitment on civilian protection.

• Whether casualty and displacement figures for Raya, Wag Hemra and North Shewa can be verified.

• Whether the interstate dispute draws attention further away from the war inside Amhara.